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Tim Harford — Article — Why brilliant people lose their touch
timharford.com/2019/06/why-brilliant-people-lose-their-touch/, posted 2019 by peter in business cognition management people
This is not to say that skill doesn’t matter — merely that in a competition in which all the leaders are highly skilled, randomness may explain the difference between triumph and failure. Good luck plus skill beats bad luck plus skill any time.